Boston Marathon Qualifying Standards:  Time to Use Age-Grading

I wrote to BAA a number of years ago about the time standards it was using for people to qualify for the Boston Marathon.  At that time, I argued that the standards were tougher for older runners than for younger runners.  Shortly afterwards, definitely not in response to my plea, BAA added five minutes to each age group - mostly in an effort to boost registration numbers, which lagged for several years after the 100th anniversary in 1996.  However, by two years ago, so many people wanted to get in to Boston, that it filled only eight hours after registration opened and a number of really good runners didn't get in.  This past year, BAA adopted an  orderly way of allowing the fastest runners to register before others, who met the standard, but weren't as fast.  For next year, BAA has rescinded the extra five minutes it allowed for most of the past decade and also cut out the extra 59 seconds it was allowing people to use. (No more using 3:25:59 if your standard is 3:25:00.)

These developments have brought me back to my original thought on the standards:  they are not totally fair between the sexes and across age-groups.  The only way to make them such is to use age-grading, a system which works well in the various regional USATF club competitions.

Briefly, here's how age-grading works:  It should be obvious that between men and women of the same age, men tend to be faster runners.  It should also be obvious that as runners age they tend to slow down because the aerobic system of an older runner won't work as efficiently as that of a younger runner.  Age-grading allows each individual to compare their own performance against the best performance of someone of their age and sex.  The individual's time is divided into the world best time and a percentage is derived.  A rough example would be if the world best marathon time for a 68 year old man were three hours and a particular 68 year old man ran the marathon in exactly four hours.  That person's age grade would be figured by divided four hours into three, which would yield a decimal of .75 or an age grade of 75.000.  (In actuality, the times would be converted to seconds for more accurate division.)  Based on observations, runners are roughly classified by the age grades they achieve as follows:  Scores over 60 are considered Local Class; over 70, Regional Class; over 80, National Class, and over 90, World Class.

The standards which were in existence for 2012, had the following age-grades for 34 year-old male and females:  Men (3:10) = AG 65.75; Women (3:40) = AG 62.16.

The standards for 2013 equal these age-grades:  Men (3:05) = 67.52; Women (3:35) = 63.61.  Note that women have an easier standard at age 34: 3.89 percentage points easier under the new standard.  This discrepancy remains, but the gap closes, until the 50 year age group.  At that point, women have, at first a slight disadvantage compared to men, but by the upper sixties, the standards equal national or world class achievements in order to qualify.  Men in the upper age- qroups aren't at much of a  qualifying disadvantage until their eighties.  

Using uniform age-grade standards would eliminate the discrepancies.  I would prefer that BAA pick one age-grade standard that each runner must achieve in order to register.  Just like this year, if too many people enter, BAA could work backwards, making the age-grading a little tougher (instead of adding seconds as it did this year.  In the present computer age, a simple formula could tell each person what grade they need to attain for their age at the next Boston.  Every year of age would have the same age-grade, but a slightly greater time for each additional year of age. The variation with an age group starts fairly small for people in their 30s, a minute or two difference per year, but by the older age groups, one year can mean many minutes difference.

Below is a chart showing the 2013 standards and my standards based on an age-grade of 66.8.  I came up with that grade because it is in between the current standards for men and women.  BAA could come up with its own age grade.  I'm showing only  the oldest age in each age group and have rounded to the nearest minute or half minute for simplicity.  Obviously if BAA thought it was too complicated to have a different number for each year of age, it could come up with a chart like this, which would still have a closer standard of fairness than what it has come up with for 2013.

Age     2013 Men     66.8 Age grade    2013 Women    66.8 age Grade

34        3:05               3:07                        3:35                    3:25

39        3:10               3:10                        3:40                    3:31

44        3:15               3:18                        3:45                    3:42

49        3:25               3:27                        3:55                    3:56

54        3:30               3:36:30                  4:00                    4:12:30

59        3:40               3:47                        4:10                    4:30:30

64        3:55               3:58:30                  4:25                    4:53

69        4:10               4:11:30                  4:40                    5:22:30

74        4:25               4:27:30                  4:55                    6:01:30

79        4:40               4:53                        5:10                    6:56:30

80        4:55               5:00

84        4:55               5:34:30

Summary: Current women's standards are too easy up to their lower 40s, about right in their mid to late 40s, and too tough 50 and beyond. A woman is her late 70s would have to be a very good national class runner and by 74 would have to run a world record time in order to qualify.  Current men's standards are somewhat slightly tougher than they should be up to their early forties (although a single age breakdown with show the standard to be about right or slightly easier for some of the younger ages in a five year group).  In the late 40 and the 50s, men have an even tougher time, but with more time alloted in their 60s and 70s, it's about right until the upper 70s. Ironically, the old standards, used in 2012, were about right for men all the way up to age 74; for women it was even easier for younger women to qualify, but not much more help above age 50.

BTW, in case anyone is wondering if I am lobbying so that it would be easier for me at age 68(which I will be next April) to get in, the answer is no.  The 2013 standards are 4:10.  By my age grade of 66.8, I would have to run 4:08:53.